The ocean’s temperature has multiple direct and indirect effects on marine organisms. Metabolic rates and mortality rates usually correlate well with temperature. While this correlation doesn’t imply causation, understanding the relationship between temperature and the abundance of organisms is key to predict their response under a changing climate.
Early in my career, I explored the influence of the upper water column temperature on sessile organisms, macroinvertebrates, non-commercial and commercial fish of the Galapagos Islands. In my Bachelor’s thesis, I used multivariate statistics, including principal components and cluster analysis, to elucidate these effects on non-commercial shallow water species of the western region of the islands. This region is characterized by strong topographic upwelling and is key for the survival of many endemic cold-water charismatic species, such as penguins and flightless cormorants. I found two distinct patterns of temperature dependence: 1) biological communities in a deep channel were strongly affected by vertical differences in temperature; and 2) communities close to the Equatorial Front were affected by seasonal variations in temperature (Kuhn, 2010).
Later, I collaborated on the analysis of the combined effects of fishing pressure and temperature variability on local fisheries. After accounting for the negative effects of fishing over the stocks of sea cucumber and spiny lobster, we found a positive lagged correlation between sea surface temperature and catch (Defeo et al., 2013). The spiny lobster series, for instance, can be replicated well as a bi-variate autoregressive process.
Defeo, O., Castrejón, M., Ortega, L., Kuhn, A., Gutiérrez, N., & Castilla, J. C. (2013). Impacts of Climate Variability on Latin American Small-scale Fisheries. Ecology and Society, 18(4).
Edgar, G. J., Banks, S., Fariña, J. M., Calvopiña, M., & Martínez, C. (2004). Regional biogeography of shallow reef fish and macro‐invertebrate communities in the Galapagos archipelago. Journal of Biogeography, 31(7), 1107-1124.
Kuhn, A.M. (2010). Influencia de la temperatura del mar sobre comunidades rocosas submareales de la Reserva Marina de Galapagos. Tesis para la obtencion del titulo de Licenciatura en Oceanografia. Escuela Politecnica del Litoral. Guayaquil – Ecuador.